zolt

The latest trend in the utilities sector could deliver an unpleasant 'jolt' (pun intended) to electric power generation companies, if it continues.

U.S. electricity consumption unexpectedly dropped in Q2 and Q3, on a year-over-year basis, The Wall Street Journal reported Friday (subscription required), although The Journal cautioned that the data is early and incomplete.

Major electric power suppliers Xcel Energy (NYSE: XEL), Duke Energy (NYSE: DUK) and American Electric Power (NYSE: AEP) all reported declines in residential electricity use in recent quarters, compared to the previous year, The Journal reported.

An electric puzzle

Economist David H. Wang told BloggingStocks Friday electricity demand is a function of more factors than one might assume. The economic cycle, seasons, weather extremes, demographics, household formation, increased efficiency, technological change, and even popular culture trends are among the major factors affecting electricity demand.

Wang believes the major factor in the recent dip is the current U.S. recession. "I will defer to more-comprehensive U.S. Energy Department and power association data later, but I think without question the economic downturn is a major factor. When people lose jobs, many tend to give up housing and live with roommates or relatives. This decreases electricity use. Also, home foreclosures result in empty homes, which obviously use less energy than occupied homes."

There have been almost no bright spots during the U.S. economic downturn -- no investor or typical citizen would trade minor pluses for the credit market and economic conditions the U.S. currently faces -- but at least one area of commerce offers some encouraging news.

The nation's average price for gasoline has dropped below $2 to $1.99 per gallon, according to a survey by motorist group AAA.

Technically, the price dropped 2 cents to $1.989 per gallon, but the macro point is the important fact: gasoline prices have fallen at their fastest rate since 1981-1983, when prices declined after the end of the 1979-80 oil shock caused by the Iranian Revolution, which devastated Iran's oil sector.

During that period, U.S. gasoline prices fell from about $1.50 per gallon to about $1.10, or from about $3.50 per gallon to about $2.40 in current dollars, economist Peter Dawson said.

Hence, the drop in gasoline prices this late summer / fall has been a record-setter in percentage terms. "The price drop has been stunning. We've dropped 50%, from an average price over $4.00 a gallon to under $2.00, and we've done it in less than a year. That's just stunning," Dawson said. "Historically, it's taken a year or longer for prices to retreat after an oil shock, and in the case of the 1979-1980 oil shock, several years."

This post is part of a feature in which we wonder whatever happened to some notorious financial felons. See all 17.

Just say it's been "a long and winding financial road" for billionaire investor George Soros -- but one that's had more smooth traveling than detours.

True, the Hungarian-born Soros was fined $2 million by a French court in 2002 for insider trading, which France's highest court upheld on an appeal on June 14, 2006, but other than that transgression, critics would be hard pressed to find other operational/financial flaws.

Soros is perhaps best known for one of the most cunning and successful short-term plays in investment fund history. On September 16, 1992 Soros sold short more than $10 billion worth of the British pound, after the Bank of England failed to raise interest rates. Soros' profit on the ensuing fall in the pound: about $1.1 billion.

Further, the other dimensions of Soros life that some critics would cite -- his social activism and philanthropy -- are viewed as positives by many others. Soros has promoted nonviolent democratization in Central and Eastern Europe, and other states, and pledged hundreds of millions of dollars to numerous universities globally and to antipoverty programs in Africa, among many other charitable acts.

From a macroeconomic standpoint, the fiscal stimulus package can't get passed soon enough.

The Conference Board's index of leading economic indicators (pdf) fell 0.8% in October, with six of 10 components dragging the index lower. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected the LEI index to decline by 0.6% in October.

From April-October 2008, the leading index declined 2.4% or a negative 4.7% annual rate, compared to a 1.2% decrease or a negative 2.3% annual rate over the previous six months, the Board said.

Economist Richard Felson told BloggingStocks Thursday the October LEI data documents what many on both Main Street and Wall Street sense: economic conditions are worsening.

"The LEI data shows an economy that's slowing. The recession is getting worse, so look for more of the same regarding job lay-offs and downsizings, as well corporate revenue and earnings declines, and earnings guidance reductions," Felson said. "As it stands now, the economy is likely to remain in recession through at least end of the second quarter of 2009, which points to the need for federal fiscal stimulus, and other measures. The individual states are doing what they can to increase private sector demand, but many are cash-strapped themselves, facing budget deficits."

In his 30 years studying economics first in China, then since 1989 in the United States, economist David H. Wang has seen it all.

Or at least he thought he had seen it all, he said.

Oil: a $100 plunge

"Oil is just about set to total a $100 fall in less than five months, which is unbelievable. It's hard to fathom," Wang said.

But, if oil, which dropped $3.41 to $49.91 early Thursday, falls $2.64 more, it will have recorded the mind-boggling $100 plunge Wang spoke about.

Oil hit a record high of $147.27 per barrel in July on what analysts then largely argued was an inability of global oil supply to keep up with oil demand growth in Asia, stemming from surging emerging market GDP growth.

However, what we now know, with the advantage of hindsight, Wang says, is that the truly ridiculous $147 price for oil this summer was fanned primarily by a liquidity bubble - - in the form of dollars and a low-interest yen deployed to commodities by institutional investors, among other oil market players. Oil demand played a role, Wang added, "but not to the degree that excess liquidity did, chasing a high-return asset [oil]. Likewise with the weak dollar."

Once again, Dow 8,000 has come back into focus.

For those investors who may not follow indices closely, the 8,000 level has a psychological but not technical support, the latter of which measures such things as the number of investors who are buying / selling, whether investors are committing more money to the market etc.

Even so, right now, a battle is taking place between the bulls and the bears: the bears argue the worst economic news stemming from the financial crisis is yet to come; the bulls argue that the worst news is behind us, and that government stimulus, fiscal and monetary, will get the U.S. economy moving again.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average Wednesday closed below 8,000 at 7,997. If the bears can keep the Dow below 8,000 and then push it through 7,800, then 7,600, it will not be a pleasant time for investors.

Let's do a condensed, cross-methodology analysis to see if we can arrive at an informed investment decision / conclusion regarding where the Dow is headed, near-term.

What's the most-riveting statistic in this week's jobless claims report? Continuing claims, which surpassed 4 million for the first time.

Continuing claims rose 109,000 in the week ended November 8. Economists pay close attention to continuing claims because it provides them with a comprehensive indicator of long-term job market conditions.

Continuing claims have risen more than 45% in the past year, which is not good news for job aspirants or for corporate revenue and earnings moving forward, so says economist Peter Dawson.

"The 4 million continuing claims total means those laid off are having a hard time finding suitable, comparable employment. There are very few jobs available, which is the major reason behind the rise in the unemployment rate," Dawson said. "Further, without falling continuing claims, it's really hard for corporate revenue and earnings to increase, and of course the stock market's low level reflects this."

Meanwhile, U.S. initial jobless claims rose 27,000 to 542,000 for the week ended November 15, the U.S. Labor Department said. Claims for the previous week were revised to 515,000. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected this week's initial jobless claims to total 505,000.

The case for a large fiscal stimulus package has received a shot in the arm, but as with so many economic developments during this decade, there's an upside and a downside.

A group of about 100 CEOs has urged President-elect Barack Obama to "quickly implement" a stimulus package of roughly $500 billion. The CEOs said the package should emphasize investment in infrastructure, including roads, bridges and other construction, as well as alternative energy projects. Their second priority: improving education.

Economist David H. Wang has extracted positive and negative threads from the CEOs' statement.

"On the one hand, the added CEO support will be welcome, I am sure, by the Obama Administration, as it builds the case for its stimulus package," Wang said.

"On the other hand, the fact that CEOs are calling for government spending, which is not a traditional CEO stance, tells you about the seriousness of our economic problem," Wang said. "The U.S. economy is in rough shape and there are few signs of improvement."

As any experienced trader will tell you, the goal is to cut your losses and let your winners ride.

Automated trading and algorithms have removed much of the subjective component from trading, but there are still trading firms and systems that rely on human judgment.

Pride and oil-long positions don't mix

That component can lead to outsized gains but also large losses, the latter being the case if you believed oil had merely corrected from $147 per barrel to the $120 level this summer.

Energy Trader Jim Dietz, fortunately, was not one of those, but there were traders who established positions at $120, held on hoping that the psychologically-important $100 level would provide support (it didn't), then sustained major losses as oil crashed through first $90, then $80, then $70.

Oil, which fell another 64 cents Wednesday at mid-day, is now trading at $53.75. Dietz said all known, short-term oil bulls -- at least the smart ones -- are out of the market.

"The bear market in oil will continue through the spring of next year, at least, and we can now see what the $147 oil price was a leverage-fed bubble," Dietz said. "The dominant issue now is the demand side. We have year-over-year oil and gasoline use declines in the U.S. and if China's consumption flat-lines, we'll fall well below $50 per barrel." Dietz added that he was currently short unleaded gasoline and oil, with monthly contracts.

The first rule of public relations is never get in a fight with anyone who buys ink by the barrel. And a major tenet of investing is don't take a stock position in conflict with Congressional policy, once Congress has committed to a program.

The wisdom behind the second adage, like the first, is obvious enough: Congress has the ability to suddenly and substantially change the investment landscape.

Case in point: Congress, which is currently hearing testimony on a performance-based rescue package for General Motors (NYSE: GM), Ford (NYSE: F), and Chrysler, could end up further funding reform by the Big Three by buying millions of the companies' vehicles for the U.S. government's auto fleet.

'Catching three fish with one cast'

Economist David H. Wang says the tactic has appeal in several areas -- economic, industrial, energy.

"It would help the three companies retain essential employees while transforming their operations, it would keep more industrial spin-off jobs in the U.S., and it would save energy by increasing U.S. government auto fleet efficiency," Wang said. "It would be like catching three fish with one cast and I think the new Obama administration would look very favorably on the energy efficiency aspect, both private and public sector dimensions."

Shares of GM fell 30 cents to $2.79, while Ford declined 16 cents $1.52 in Wednesday morning trading.

It's rapidly becoming the world's largest parking lot.

Is it the Cross Bronx Expressway at 6 p.m.? No, it's the Long Beach, California port, which along with the Los Angeles port is rapidly becoming a defacto storage lot, The New York Times reported, as thousands of unwanted, new foreign cars pile up, their future unknown.

The reason? Foreign new car sales have plunged as consumers cut back spending amid the caution-inducing U.S. recession and unemployment levels rise, which historically has led to a decline in new car sales. New car dealers order cars months in advance but have the authority to reject delivery if demand declines.

Further, if you thought only U.S. automakers General Motors (NYSE: GM), Ford (NYSE: F) and Chrysler had lots and storage fields of unsold new cars, you're mistaken, so says economist Peter Dawson.

"This recession is an equal-opportunity pain inflicter for auto manufacturers, and it's hitting foreign car manufacturers as well," Dawson said. "Toyota (NYSE: TM), Nissan, even Mercedes-Benz are seeing their inventories build, despite promotions and sales incentives."

Most investors know that there's a difference between Democratic Party leadership and Republican Party leadership, as it relates to U.S. fiscal and economic policy.

However, although more economically-cohesive than the Democratic Party, the Republican Party is not monolithic, and there's perhaps no better example of these often nuanced differences in policy than the positions on home mortgage assistance policy held by U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, and FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair.

Paulson has been slow on payment relief

Although he has shown support for mortgage refinance programs aimed at achieving lower payments - - 'payment relief' in Washingtonspeak - - Paulson has steered clear of policies that would mandate that banks unilaterally lower principals, or interest rates, preferring to stick with a voluntary approach, whereby banks basically negotiate with borrowers on a case-by-case basis.

That traditional Republican response, economist David H. Wang said, "has prevented mortgage refinancings from occurring for those who don't truly need them," but it also has increased the at-risk mortgage pool, delaying the housing sector's recovery.

A solution to the above, in Wang's view? Adopt the FDIC plan backed by Bair, whereby the Treasury would use its funds to speed refinancings for at-risk homeowners in owner-occupied homes. Wang agreed with Bair that the FDIC plan could prevent 1.5 million foreclosures by the end of 2009.

"It could prevent even more, perhaps as many as 1.8-2 million foreclosures, and until the U.S. ends these waves of foreclosures, very little good news will occur from a GDP standpoint, which is why Bair's plan should be enacted," Wang said. "I also think President-elect Obama should appoint her to a Special Advisor post in the Obama Administration, solving the home foreclosure problem is that critical to the nation's economic health."

When is a near double-digit decline in home prices viewed as a small victory? When you're the United States in late 2008 -- a nation grappling with its worst housing slump in decades amid signs of a deepening recession.

U.S. median home prices fell 9% in Q3 compared to a year earlier, to $200,500, the National Association of Realtors announced Tuesday. Prices fell in 120 U.S. metro areas, rose in 28 and were flat in four.

California registers major declines

The largest decline in home prices occurred in California: the Riverside-San Bernadino area recorded a 39.4% decline, to $227,200; the Sacramento area, a 36.8% decline to $212.000; and the San Diego area, a 36% plunge to $377,300.

At the other end of the spectrum, prices rose 12.5% in Elmira, N.Y, and 8.7% in Decatur, Illinois.

Economist Peter Dawson said today's NAR statistics represents more, sobering data from the housing sector, but in the broader context the report is not as bad as the quarterly data implies.

"We're down 9%, but it's less than what most feared, so that's a positive development, sort of," Dawson said. "We've experienced so many jolting, double-digit price declines in home prices and other negative stats from the sector that anything less than the truly abysmal looks modest, and that's the case with the Q3 NAR data."

Yet another milestone has been reached in the ever-evolving global economy: China has passed Japan to become the largest foreign owner of U.S. Treasuries, the U.S. Treasury Department announced Tuesday.

China added $43.6 billion in U.S. Treasuries in September to about $585 billion in U.S. government debt, ahead of Japan's $573 billion.

Economist David H. Wang says the increased demand for U.S. Treasuries reflects both a global trend and an effort on China's part to increase high-rated bond holdings.

"In general, of course, during the financial crisis we've seen a global flight-to-safety by institutional investors, which has increased demand for U.S. government bonds," Wang said. "Also, China has made it known that it will be adding to existing U.S. bond positions, and the September data is further confirmation of this investment stance."

That global demand, led by China, has enabled the United States to have perhaps the most unique of all possible financing circumstances: moderate interest rates to finance its debt despite rapidly increasing borrowing to pay for the U.S. bank rescue and related financial stabilization programs, Wang said. For example, despite record government borrowing, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is lower today, at 3.68%, than it was in August, 3.88%.

OPEC, which Tuesday again lowered its 2009 global oil demand forecast (pdf), is still seen cutting production quotas, but at its regularly scheduled meeting on December 17 in Algeria, not at its special meeting November 29 in Cairo.

Still, the compelling question remains whether OPEC members will comply with existing decisions to lower production, let alone new ones, said economist Peter Dawson.

OPEC problem: production 'cheaters'

"OPEC members are getting into a bit of quandary, and it's one we've seen before, cyclically, in the oil market. States know that if they all cut, their action will support prices some," Dawson said. "The problem has been that historically, some members 'cheat' a little and produce over their quota, thinking their small increase will not affect prices that much, and they will reap extra revenue as a result. When several members do this, the price of oil continues to drop, and so does the cartel's effectiveness."

In the past, cheaters have been small OPEC states, such as Iran, Libya and Nigeria, Dawson said. Oil Tuesday fell 37 cents to $54.58 per barrel. Oil has plunged more than 60% since hitting a record high of $147.27 per barrel this summer, as both long-term investors and short-term traders exited long positions in the markets.